Predicting the behavior of digital assets is not as easy as it may seem. The behavior of cryptocurrencies is influenced by many factors, some of which cannot be predicted.
Even though it is almost impossible to predict the exact trajectory of the course of an asset, new forecasts appear on the internet every day. Often their authors are people popular in the crypto community. At the same time, the practice has shown that the caliber of the name is not a guarantee that the prediction will come true.
In this material, we collected the top 3 most unsuccessful, but at the same time popular in cryptographic space authors of crypto price predictions.
Co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, Wall Street Analyst Tom Lee
The analyst, who took first place in the ranking of the most unsuccessful authors of predictions, became famous for his overly optimistic, and at the same time baseless predictions of the further movement of the Bitcoin exchange rate (BTC). For example, at the beginning of 2018, Tom Lee expressed the opinion that during the year the coin will be able to rise to $25 thousand. It is noteworthy that the analyst gave a prediction against the background of an active correction of the cryptocurrency exchange rate after reaching a maximum in December 2017 near the level of $20 thousand.
Later, in an interview for Bloomberg, Tom Lee doubled down on his forecast. He explained the prediction of the growth of the digital asset by the prospect of the coin entering a positive movement against the background of the annual Consensus conference of 2018. Traditionally, the event attracts public attention to digital assets, which positively affects their prices.
On the eve of Consensus 2018, Tom Lee turned to the crypto community with an even brighter statement. The analyst predicted bitcoin at $64 thousand by the end of 2019. In 2020, in his opinion, the coin should reach $91 thousand.
Contrary to the expectations of Tom Lee, by the end of the 2018 conference, the cryptocurrency rate decreased by 3.25% (to $8250). Subsequently, the coin continued to fall to a local minimum, which was recorded near the level of $3 thousand. In 2019, Bitcoin still realized growth. However, its maximum ($13 800) was far from the crypto analyst's forecast.
It is noteworthy that during 2018, Tom Lee repeatedly adjusted his crypto forecast. In July 2018, as part of an interview for CNBC, he clarified that against the background of the circumstances, he sees the possibility of growing Bitcoin to only $22 thousand (instead of the previously promised $25 thousand). Subsequently, in the fall of that year, he lowered the bar to $15 thousand.
His crypto analysis explained the failure of his theory about the growth of the digital asset against the background of the conference as an uncertain situation in the regulatory market.
In 2020, against the backdrop of the potential for positive movement of the BTC course after halving implemented in May, cryptocurrency had still been far from the levels named by Tom Lee. The analyst's fresh forecasts, according to which Bitcoin could reach $28 thousand by August of that year, as it becomes clear when looking at the digital asset schedule, did not come true.
Founder of MGT Capital Investments, Entrepreneur, and Ex-US Presidential Candidate John McAfee
McAfee is known for his prediction of a Bitcoin price of $1 million by the end of 2020. Initially, the rate was twice as much, but in the end, McAfee decided to increase it. It is noteworthy that the entrepreneur accompanied the prediction with a promise to eat his male dignity on national television if his assumption turns out to be incorrect.
Even though later McAfee repeatedly tried to reduce everything to a joke, network users still remind him of the forecast. John McAfee was recently arrested and was later found hanging in his cell, according to Reuters, so he won’t be able to fulfill his promise anymore anyway.
Billionaire, head of Galaxy Digital Mike Novogratz
In one of the autumn interviews of 2017 for CNBC, Mike Novogratz said that by the end of 2018, Bitcoin would be able to grow to $40 thousand. Unfortunately, this did not happen.
It is noteworthy that against the background of an active depreciation of the digital asset during 2018, Mike Novogratz, following the example of his colleague - Tom Lee - adjusted the prediction to $9 thousand.
Contrary to predictions, during the period indicated by the billionaire, cryptocurrency showed negative dynamics. In addition, at the end of 2018, the BTC dropped to a local low of $3 thousand.
Later, in August 2019, Mike Novogratz shared his opinion that Bitcoin would never return to the level of $5 thousand.
In March 2020, amid the coronavirus pandemic, the cryptocurrency dropped to $3,800, but Mike Novogratz did not comment on his unfulfilled forecasts and continued to give new predictions.
As he said in April 2022, after the Reserve stops raising the key rate, the price of Bitcoin will be set between $500 000 and $1 million.
At the same time, the venture investor is convinced that Bitcoin will ultimately be used to preserve capital, and not for payments. Galaxy Digital analysts predict that both BTC and ETH will double in price until mid-2023.
The opinions of experts are often subjective and significantly different, which is reflected in the breadth of the range of predicted prices. Therefore, any predictions should be taken carefully.
The level of fame of the authors of predictions in the crypto space does not need to be perceived as a guarantee that the prediction will necessarily come true. Practice shows that even the most confident statements and assumptions about a particular scenario of the cryptocurrency exchange rate often do not coincide with reality.
At the same time, effective work without studying the opinions of participants in the crypto community is almost impossible.